ADB Warns of Long-Term Economic Impact from Trump’s Policy Shifts on Asia-Pacific

JAKARTA, RAKYAT NEWS – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected stable economic growth for Asia and the Pacific in 2024 and 2025, despite potential long-term effects of policy changes under former U.S. President Donald Trump.

ADB’s recent report, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) for December 2024, suggests that significant shifts in U.S. trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could slow growth and increase inflation in developing countries across Asia and the Pacific.

According to Albert Park, ADB’s Chief Economist, these policy changes are expected to impact China’s economy moderately, with potential ripple effects across the broader region. While the U.S. economy will likely feel the effects of these shifts sooner, it may take longer for Asia-Pacific nations to experience tangible consequences—likely by 2026.

However, rapid implementation of such policies could bring these impacts sooner, particularly if American businesses adjust their import strategies to avoid potential tariffs.

Economic growth for developing countries in Asia-Pacific is projected at 4.9% in 2024, slightly lower than ADB’s previous forecast of 5%. For 2025, growth expectations have been revised down to 4.8% from 4.9%, largely due to weaker domestic demand in South Asia.

The region’s inflation forecast has been slightly reduced, with 2024 inflation expected to be 2.7%, down from 2.8%, and a further decline to 2.6% in 2025, due in part to expectations of moderating oil prices.

Domestic demand and robust exports continue to drive economic expansion across the region. However, ADB forecasts that any major changes in U.S. policies, especially those involving trade and immigration, will likely unfold gradually.